LABOUR WINS HOUNSLOW IN THE LONDON ELECTIONS – MAY 2012

Whilst Ken Livingstone narrowly lost to Boris Johnson in the Mayoral race on May 3rd, Labour won the vote across London in the two Assembly ballots.  In the south-west London contest Lisa Homan increased the Labour vote by nearly 20,000 pushing the Liberal Dems into third place for the first time since the London Assembly was formed.  This is remarkable as Hounslow is joined with Tory/Lib Dem-dominated Kingston and Richmond boroughs.

Breaking the figures down to the borough level. Labour beat the Tories by 14 point in Hounslow borough, with almost 47% of the vote [see chart above].  The Lib Dems (7%) were beaten by the Greens on 8%, whilst UKIP polled 5.5%.  Based on this result, Labour would be set to win Hounslow easily in the 2014 Council elections.  In a general election on the new Parliamentary boundaries, Labour would also win Brentford and Isleworth, by about 400 votes.

This analysis is taken from the party (list) ballot, as it takes out any element of personal vote, and excludes the very minor parties and independent candidates.  The ward data only includes those voting at polling stations - over a quarter of voters (16,400) voted by post and these were counted borough-wide.    

Across the whole borough, Labour performed strongly in all the wards where we hold seats as well as Hounslow South and Feltham North where all 6 Councillors are Tories [see  table below for full figures].  In Hanworth Park there were 2 votes in it, and in Osterley and Spring Grove Labour were just over 100 votes behind.  Labour also won the postal vote by about 500.   

These results provide the party with an excellent platform from which to campaign to retain control of Hounslow in 2014, and to win Brentford andIsleworth back in 2015.  However they are a simplification of what will be the real picture on the day particularly in the wards in the Council elections.  Lessons from across the UK on May 3^rd showed that good campaigns by local candidates win wards, and that no party, even in “safe” seats can take their victory for granted.

   

Ward  (B&I shaded)	Labour	Conservative	L/D	Green	UKIP	TOTAL
Postal votes	7344	5768	1240	1180	946	16478
Bedfont	752	583	127	101	172	1735
Brentford	1302	753	235	283	158	2731
Chiswick Homefields	714	1403	242	338	95	2792
Chiswick Riverside	741	1460	263	378	83	2925
Cranford	1288	320	70	72	42	1792
Feltham North	697	521	91	89	135	1533
Feltham West	893	589	130	113	200	1925
Hanworth	705	480	133	104	156	1578
Hanworth Park	745	747	156	97	199	1944
Heston Central	1113	421	101	105	76	1816
Heston East	1227	442	90	109	72	1940
Heston West	1518	369	83	100	90	2160
Hounslow Central	1458	612	128	175	96	2469
Hounslow Heath	1500	477	158	152	73	2360
Hounslow South	1333	939	155	233	128	2788
Hounslow West	1414	399	105	111	56	2085
Isleworth	1094	653	201	252	162	2362
Osterley &Spring Gr	1021	1134	187	211	102	2655
Syon	1088	777	176	339	158	2538
Turnham Green	713	1262	252	380	101	2708
TOTALS	28660	20109	4323	4922	3300	61314
Percentage	46.7	32.8	7	8	5.4

The local implications of the London Election Results

Despite Ken Livingstone losing the Mayoral race the result was good for Labour at this point in the national political cycle and reflected our strong results in the Council elections in the rest of the country on the same day.  In South West London, a naturally Tory seat as we are twinned with Richmond and Kingston, we did fantastically well with Lisa Homan.  We had a 12.7% swing to Labour on the constituency seat,  normally coming third. Lisa had a 20,000 lead over the Lib Dems, and increased the Labour vote on the party list by 10.2%. 

Labour’s representation on the 25 seat Assembly increased by 4 to 12 (2 constituency seats and 2 list seats – including Onkar Sahota next door in Ealing & Hillingdon).  Frustratingly the Tories only dropped 2 seats  to 9 so they still have enough to wave the Mayor’s budget and other plans through, although they did lose two of their key figures, Brian Coleman and Richard Barnes.  Well behind were the other parties, the Greens pushing  the Lib Dems into fourth place, and they both end up with two seats each on the Assembly.  One of the real high spots was that the BNP no longer have a seat on the London Assembly, and UKIP also failed to get one too.

So we have another four years of Boris – acting as little more than an arm of the Tory-led Government.  Superficially he seems to distance himself from Cameron and the national party, but he has done little for London and promises little more: since he became Mayor four years ago pollution levels have risen, injuries and deaths to pedestrians and cyclists have grown, fares have gone up, crime levels rising and the housing crisis has risen to epidemic proportions.  Boris has done nothing and promises nothing to challenge central Government on its role in London’s specific and chronic needs: not only housing, but the widening gap between rich and poor, growing youth disaffection and alienation, crime levels, transport infrastructure and funding and so on. 

Livingstone came to this election with a record of standing up for London and delivering radical change: from effective equalities policies and Fares Fair in the 80s; to the congestion charge, the Olympics, improved public transport and safer neighbourhood teams when elected as London’s first Mayor.  He promised more this time – the return of the Education Maintenance Allowance so young people could afford to stay in education, fares cuts, more policing and affordable housing etc.  Sadly these won’t be delivered as the electorate voted for the media darling rather than the man of substance.  London, outer and inner, will be worse off as a result.

Fit for Work Test for Claimants

Hounslow has been found to have a high number of people previously assessed as being on incapacity benefit who have had their claims reassessed as being ineleigible.  It is absolutely right that people who are fit for work should be seeking work and not claiming benefits which they have claimed fraudulently.  However I really do worry about the way the system is punishing people who clearly have such profound health problems that they are unable to hold down work of any kind.  The statistics published this week do not take account of the numbers who have succesfully appealed the original decision, when qualified medical people have understood why they are unable to work.  Also the current system does not take account of the, sadly, many people who have a variety of mental helath problems and for whom work is just too much to cope with, either all the time, or on "bad days".  I would like to see a review of the incapacity system that is firm but fiar, something that the Coalition Government has no interest in.   There are lots of people writing on this, but I started with Disability Rights UK http://tinyurl.com/ck6aflz